Logistics Indicator in co-operation with the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) at Kiel University

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The quarterly Logistics Indicator is computed by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy on behalf of BVL International. It reflects the current business situation as well as the expectations over the next 12 months of Germany's logistics service providers and customers of logistical services in industry and trade. Each quarter, a panel of 200 decision makers is polled (100 managers of the most important logistics service providers and 100 top executives of industrial customers of logistical services). Polling takes place in the first half of the mid-quarter month. The design of the questionnaire targets the cyclical assessment of all logistics-related activities in the Federal Republic of Germany.

For all questions, three alternative answers apply: positive/expansionary, normal/neutral, and negative/contractionary. In a first step, the polled answers are balanced by subtracting the negative answers from the positive ones. The results are then related to the number of all answers for each question (the resulting percentage values are published separately, see slides 4, 5, 7, and 8). Next, for each market side and each indicator category (current situation and 12-months expectations) all relative balances are averaged and scaled to a span reaching form 0 (implying that 100 % of all answers are negative) to 200 (only positive answers). A value of 100 (normal level) indicates that positive and negative answers are equally represented. By further averaging the situation and expectations components the climate indicator for each market side results. Finally, the composite logistics indicator represents the equally weighted mean of the corresponding specific market side values.

All questions on quarterly developments are designed to induce respondents to express seasonally adjusted assessments of the current situation. A standard method for seasonal adjustment (Census-X12-ARIMA) is additionally applied to all numbers and indicator values reported in this document in order to filter out the remaining seasonal pattern.

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Christine Körner
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P: +49/421/173 84 35

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