Economic sideways movement continues in logistics Extras

Commentary on the Logistics Indicator Q4 2025 by Kai Althoff, Chairman of the Board of Bundesvereinigung Logistik (BVL) e.V. and CEO 4flow SE

The figures for the logistics indicator for the third quarter were surprisingly positive, but as expected, the trend did not continue. The figures for the fourth quarter, and November in particular, show that there is still no sustained recovery, let alone a noticeable upturn in the logistics sector. The business situation and business climate stagnated in the fourth quarter for both shippers and service providers. While business expectations for the quarter as a whole are still slightly up (shippers +0.5, service providers +0.3, total +0.5), they fell slightly again in the November evaluation (shippers -1.5, service providers -0.2, total -0.6). The stagnation is also evident in the business climate (no change from the previous quarter in the overall view) and the business situation (total -0.5).

The current development of the logistics indicator reflects the wait-and-see attitude of the industry. Investment announcements by the government and companies were already priced in during the last quarter, as was the current calm in international customs policy. The fact that business expectations have now been significantly above the business situation for two quarters (+6.5 in Q4) shows that the industry generally expects the situation to improve. This picture is also consistent with a cross-comparison with other indicators. The business climate index for Germany is currently showing a very similar trend to the logistics indicator, and the latest report by the German Council of Economic Experts also points to modest economic growth in Germany, with a forecast of +0.9% for 2026. The report also points out that the momentum of growth will depend largely on whether the announced government measures and investments in infrastructure, digitalization, and bureaucracy reduction are implemented in a targeted and efficient manner.

At the BVL Supply Chain CX in October, we saw that the logistics industry in Germany is doing its homework and working on the future topics of digitalization and efficiency. As soon as external factors provide a clear impetus for growth, the industry will be ready to contribute to dynamic economic growth.