Logistics Indicator in Q4 2010

Intact uptrend in the German logistics sector

The German logistics industry is heading for the end of 2010 with a great deal of positive momentum. This is the core finding of the Logistics Indicator computed for Bundesvereinigung Logistik e.V. (BVL) by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The climate score for the closing quarter (November survey) is up 7 points to 154.6 points, almost on a par with the historical high measured in the first half of 2007 and back up above the pre‐crisis level recorded in the first half of 2008. This positive trend is mainly driven by the excellent scores for the assessment of the current situation: the strong uptrend from previous quarters is unbroken, and the figure of 160.8 points (an increase of over 15 points) is the highest score since the surveys began in 2006. In contrast, expectations are down slightly (by 1.7 to 148.4 points), and assessments of the current situation meanwhile show a clear lead of 12.3 points over expectations, pointing to a probable slight slowdown at a high level during the course of the coming year.

The Logistics Indicator is computed for Bundesvereinigung Logistik e.V. (BVL) by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) at Kiel University. The design of the indicator allows values between 0 and 200, where a value of 100 characterises a "normal" economic situation (satisfactory and stable business and order situation with normal capacity utilisation levels).

This commentary is based on the currently foreseeable development of the polled survey elements. With the data volume that is available to date, the computation of the profiled overall and sub-indicators is only possible as part of an initial calculation process. Using quarterly figures, the question design on which the indicator concept is based is geared towards assessment of the seasonally "normal" values (after adjustment for seasonal effects). Nevertheless, the possibility that seasonal effects impact response behaviour cannot be ruled out. Once the indicator has been in use for a sufficient period of time, it will be possible to statistically filter out these influences. Moreover, it will in future also be possible to conduct surveys on the lead time characteristics with regard to both the sectoral and the overall economic trend. These surveys will be conducted by the IfW as soon as the necessary volume of data is available.

Downloads

Complete results (PDF, 266 kb)

Commentary by ifw (PDF, 179 kb)

Commentary by BVL (PDF, 20 kb)

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Alexander Niestegge
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Content/Knowledge
P: +49/421/173 84 27
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Logistics Indicator