Logistics Indicator in Q4 2011

Strong final quarter but dramatic downtrend in business outlook – debt crisis as a stability risk for Germany

The business climate in the German logistics industry became considerably bleaker to-wards the end of the year. This is the finding of the most recent survey (November poll) for the Logistics Indicator computed for Bundesvereinigung Logistik e.V. (BVL) by the Institute for the World Economy in Kiel. The 20-point decline in the climate score to 126 points is mainly driven by the strong downturn in business expectations, which fell by 32 points and are meanwhile only 8.2 points from the neutral 100-line. In contrast, the business situation in the fourth quarter is still described as extremely positive, despite a slight decrease of 7 points to 145.3 points. The current business pattern – a strong de-cline in expectations accompanied by positive assessment of current business – is almost identical on both sides of the market (users and providers).