Logistics Indicator in Q3 2010

Intact uptrend in the German logistics sector

The current trend in the German logistics sector is still an upward one. In the third quarter, the Logis-tics Indicator computed for Bundesvereinigung Logistik e.V. (BVL) by the Institute for the World Economy gained ground for the fifth quarter in succession, reaching a level of 147.6 - the highest figure since the turn of 2007/2008. This is equivalent to an increase of 8.7 points year on year. Assessment scores for the current situation have continued to close the gap on the optimistic expecta-tions, and the two sub-indicators are now more or less on a par with each other. One noticeable find-ing is that trends on the supply side (logistics service providers) and the demand side in industry and trade are not as uniform as they were in previous quarters. Whereas the supply side has experienced a continued strong uptrend (a gain of 13 index points), the increase on the demand side was weak by comparison (4.5 points). Moreover, expectations on the demand side of the market for the next 12 months are slightly less optimistic for the first time since the spring of 2009.

The Logistics Indicator is computed for Bundesvereinigung Logistik e.V. (BVL) by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) at Kiel University. The design of the indicator allows values between 0 and 200, where a value of 100 characterises a "normal" economic situation (satisfactory and stable business and order situation with normal capacity utilisation levels).

This commentary is based on the currently foreseeable development of the polled survey elements. With the data volume that is available to date, the computation of the profiled overall and sub-indicators is only possible as part of an initial calculation process. Using quarterly figures, the question design on which the indicator concept is based is geared towards assessment of the seasonally "normal" values (after adjustment for seasonal effects). Nevertheless, the possibility that seasonal effects impact response behaviour cannot be ruled out. Once the indicator has been in use for a sufficient period of time, it will be possible to statistically filter out these influences. Moreover, it will in future also be possible to conduct surveys on the lead time characteristics with regard to both the sectoral and the overall economic trend. These surveys will be conducted by the IfW as soon as the necessary volume of data is available.

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Complete results (PDF, 271 kb)

Commentary by ifw (PDF, 212 kb)

Commentary by BVL (PDF, 69 kb)

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Logistics Indicator