Logistics Indicator in Q3 2011

The boom goes on – but expectations are noticeably bleaker

The German logistics sector continues to flourish in the third quarter, but the forecasts for business in months to come are slightly more cautious. This is the core finding of the latest survey (August poll) for the Logistics Indicator computed by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy on behalf of Bundesvereinigung Logistik e.V. (BVL). While the score for assessment of the current situation re-mained at a high level and was down by only 4 points to 152.5 index points, the drop in the expecta-tion score was marked at almost 15 points. On the whole, however, the overall index for the German logistics sector was still well in the expansive corridor above the neutral 100 line at 146.4 points. The slight downtrend in expectations was observed on both sides of the market, and it is important to note that the timing of the survey means that the findings do not yet reflect the most recent turbulence on the international capital markets. On both the supply side (logistics service providers) and the demand side (industry and trade), assessments of the current situation are considerably more positive than expectations for the next 12 months.