Strong uptrend in the logistics sector in Germany, developments confirm optimism from previous quarters
In the spring of the current year, the German logistics sector is continuing on its clear upward trend. This is the finding of the latest Logistics Indicator computed by the Institute for the World Economy on behalf of Bundesvereinigung Logistik e.V. (BVL). The overall climate indicator showed another strong gain (by 24.5 points) and now stands at 138.8 points. This is well above the neutral 100 mark and is almost on a par with a figure last measured two years ago. In contrast to the findings for the previous quarters, the scores for assessment of the current situation have also improved strongly, and the new index score of 130.6 points is not only the first time the figure has been above normal level for more than a year but has also significantly closed the gap relative to the expectation com-ponent, which has improved for the sixth quarter in succession and is now at an extremely optimistic score of 147.1 index points (a gain of 11.5 points).
The convergence of situation assessment and expectations has basically been observed on both sides of the market. While the two components are practically identical on the user side (industry and trade), the big divide of over 60 points seen in the last quarter on the provider side (logistics service providers) has more than halved. The latter development is almost entirely due to the improved as-sessments of the current situation, which have climbed by over 40 index points to a new level of 124.1. All sub-components contributed equally to driving this trend. Whereas incoming orders were already moving towards expansion in the previous quarters and have continued to improve (both in Germany and in foreign markets), the business situation is now once again described as clearly posi-tive for the first time in five quarters. Capacity utilisation, which was assessed as, in some cases, to-tally inadequate for the last seven quarters running, has also shown a strong recovery and is once again assessed as positive by the majority of respondents for the first time. Together with a slight increase in the expectation score to 150.3 index points (chiefly resulting from improved forecast em-ployment levels), this has driven the rise in the climate value on the provider side to a new level of 137.2 points (a gain of 22.1 points).
The logistics climate on the user side has also brightened significantly (rising by 27 points to 140.5 points), but on this side of the market the two components (current situation and forecast) have made a more balanced contribution to the improvement. The score for assessment of the current situation is up from 102.4 to 137.1 points, while expectations have increased from 124.7 to 143.9 index points. With internal logistics capacities being overwhelmingly described as "highly utilised", capacity availability in the market is considerably lower than it has been. Moreover, logistics prices are no longer lagging behind the general cost trend. All the signs clearly point to growth in both do-mestic and cross-border logistics demand in months and years to come, and this is reflected in the increased capacity expansion plans on the user side (with regard to both fixed assets and recruit-ment). This expansion will have little or no substitutive effect, however, which means that the logis-tics service providers can also expect to reap major benefits from this growth in demand.
When it comes to procuring capital, the overwhelming majority of respondents do not see any "credit squeeze" problems for their own companies: 78 percent of providers and 85 percent of users say there are no increased finance problems. This reflects the easing of the situation compared to the winter quarter of 2009, when 40 percent of providers and 31 percent of users said the financial crisis had made it more difficult for them to procure capital.
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