Logistics Indicator in Q2 2011

Logistics sector in Germany back on the road to growth from an already high level

In the spring of 2011, the German logistics sector is in an excellent state of health. This is the core finding of the most recent survey (May poll) for the logistics indicator computed by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy for Bundesvereinigung Logistik e.V. (BVL). The growth of 8.5 index points in the climate score more than offset the slight downtrend in the previous quarter, taking the indicator to a level of 156.3 points, the second-highest score since the first survey in the fourth quarter of 2006. The central element in this finding is the considerable improvement in assessments of the current situation (up 12 points to 157.7), even if this figure is still short of the peak value recorded for the final quarter of last year. Business expectations for the next 12 months - already at a stable high level for four quarters now - improved by 5 points to 154.9 points. The stronger improvement in assessments of the current situation can be seen both on the supply side (logistics service providers) and among users in industry and trade - whose contribution to the generally improved climate is slightly greater overall.

Read more in the PDF-files.

The Logistics Indicator is computed for Bundesvereinigung Logistik e.V. (BVL) by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) at Kiel University. The design of the indicator allows values between 0 and 200, where a value of 100 characterises a "normal" economic situation (satisfactory and stable business and order situation with normal capacity utilisation levels).

This commentary is based on the currently foreseeable development of the polled survey elements. With the data volume that is available to date, the computation of the profiled overall and sub-indicators is only possible as part of an initial calculation process. Using quarterly figures, the question design on which the indicator concept is based is geared towards assessment of the seasonally "normal" values (after adjustment for seasonal effects). Nevertheless, the possibility that seasonal effects impact response behaviour cannot be ruled out. Once the indicator has been in use for a sufficient period of time, it will be possible to statistically filter out these influences. Moreover, it will in future also be possible to conduct surveys on the lead time characteristics with regard to both the sectoral and the overall economic trend. These surveys will be conducted by the IfW as soon as the necessary volume of data is available.

Downloads

Complete results (PDF, 272 kb)

Commentary by ifw (PDF, 278 kb)

Commentary by BVL (PDF, 83 kb)

Contact

Alexander Niestegge
Head of
Content/Knowledge
P: +49/421/173 84 27
E-mail

Logistics Indicator