Significant recovery in the Germany logistics sector, "green logistics" und sustainability unaffected by the crisis
At the beginning of the year, we can see a continuation of the expansive trend in the German logistics industry. Evaluation of the February survey for the Logistics Indicator showed an increase of 12 index points in the climate score, which is now well above the neutral 100 mark at 114.3 points.
The favourable trend in the overall score is, however, massively driven by the positive expectations for developments during the next 12 months. At an index score of 135.6 points (up by 14 points), the expectation component has now reached a level once again approaching the figures from the first half of 2008.
In contrast, assessments of the current situation are still considerably more restrained. Despite an improvement of just under 10 index points, the updated score of 93.1 points indicates that business in the current quarter is still not at as good as it would be in a "normal" economic situation. As a result, there is still a wide gap between assessments of the current situation and expectations for the future, although both scores have now been on an uptrend for the last three quarters.
At the same time, it is important to note that this trend applies only to the market overall. Whereas the scores for assessments of the current situation and future trends are moving closer together on the demand side (industry and trade), these two sub-indicators continue to move further apart on the supply side (logistics service providers). At over 62 index points, the gap between expectations and assessment of the current situation is meanwhile at its largest since surveys began in 2006.
While optimism for the next 12 months has once again increased markedly (growth of the expectation component by almost 18 index points to 146.5), assessment scores for the current situation have in fact shown a slight decline (by 3 points to a level of 83.7). This is due to the slower growth of incoming orders from Germany and abroad as well as the far weaker recovery in the business trend.
Business volumes, order levels and capacity utilisation are more or less stagnant. Nevertheless, the slow development of business in the current quarter has not put a damper on the growing expectations for a strong improvement during the next 12 months. Three in four respondents expect to see growth in demand for logistics services, and virtually no one still forecasts a shrinking market. This is also reflected in the findings for capacity planning: the willingness to invest is on the increase, and we are seeing the first signs of slightly higher anticipated employment levels for the first time in more than a year.
On the demand side, assessments of the current situation are considerably brighter (as reflected by the increase of over 21 points) and have now returned to normal level (index score of 102.4 points) over the course of the last year. All situation components have improved and (with the exception of capacity availability in the market - which is still considered to be considerable) the answers to all the sub-questions have turned around in the direction of expansion - particularly so with regard to the utilisation of internal logistics capacities.
In contrast, the improvement in expectations was more modest (up by just under 11 to 124.7 index points). One of the key positive factors on this front was the return to investment and recruitment plans geared towards increasing capacity levels; the swing towards planned personnel expansion was particularly strong.
These optimistic overall expectations geared towards expansion are also reflected in the area of "green logistics" and sustainability. While around one in two respondents say their investment plans in these areas are unchanged from last year, 40 percent of logistics service providers and 36 percent of users intend to invest even more money in these activities.
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