Logistics Indicator in Q1 2011

Logistics turnover in German stabilises at high level – expansion plans for freight transport infrastructure and inadequate

At the start of 2011, the German logistics industry is showing a strong uptrend. At 147.8 points, the climate index of the Logistics Indicator computed for Bundesvereinigung Logistik e.V. (BVL) by the Institute for the World Economy (IfW) for the current quarter (February survey) is not quite on a par with the score for the previous quarter (down by 4.4 percent), but the signals are nevertheless still clearly set to expansion based on the "normal level benchmark" of 100 points. The minor blip in the climate index is solely due to the slightly less favourable assessments of the current situation (down by 9.4 percent), while the expectation component is still robust and is even up one percent. The picture is more or less identical on both sides of the market - although the gap between current situation and expectation scores has widened on the supply side (logistics service providers, whose expectation scores are 12 index points higher than current situation scores), while the two components are now practically on a par with each other on the demand side (industry and trade).

Read more in the PDF-files.

The Logistics Indicator is computed for Bundesvereinigung Logistik e.V. (BVL) by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) at Kiel University. The design of the indicator allows values between 0 and 200, where a value of 100 characterises a "normal" economic situation (satisfactory and stable business and order situation with normal capacity utilisation levels).

This commentary is based on the currently foreseeable development of the polled survey elements. With the data volume that is available to date, the computation of the profiled overall and sub-indicators is only possible as part of an initial calculation process. Using quarterly figures, the question design on which the indicator concept is based is geared towards assessment of the seasonally "normal" values (after adjustment for seasonal effects). Nevertheless, the possibility that seasonal effects impact response behaviour cannot be ruled out. Once the indicator has been in use for a sufficient period of time, it will be possible to statistically filter out these influences. Moreover, it will in future also be possible to conduct surveys on the lead time characteristics with regard to both the sectoral and the overall economic trend. These surveys will be conducted by the IfW as soon as the necessary volume of data is available.

Downloads

Complete results (PDF, 270 kb)

Commentary by ifw (PDF, 60 kb)

Commentary by BVL (PDF, 33 kb)

Contact

Alexander Niestegge
Head of
Content/Knowledge
P: +49/421/173 84 27
E-mail

Logistics Indicator